Copper Price Slump Devastating Chilean State Finances
Copper has not risen with the tide that has lifted so many other commodities, with a lacklustre 2.2% gain in 2016 after dropping 26% in 2015.
Chile’s government finances are feeling the pain from lower mining revenues, which have fallen from a peak of 34.2% ten years ago to just 1.5% this year. Rating agency Moody's says the country’s deficit is likely to be 3.3% of GDP next year, up from 2.2% in 2015, pushing debt levels to 25.2% of GDP, the highest in more than two decades.
Chile produces nearly 30% of the world's copper, with annual production of some 5.8 million tonnes.
State-owned Codelco, the world’s top producer, is contemplating moving from cost reductions to lower outputs as it faces what its CEO calls the “worst crisis” in its 40-year history.
Moody's says the South American country’s situation would be even worse without a substantial tax reform that provided one-time gains in 2015. And if copper prices don’t recover soon, Chile’s finances could be even gloomier in the years to come.