So far in 2016, gold has achieved solid and consistent gains. By last Friday, it was up by almost 25% -- firm evidence of a gold bull cycle.
Safe haven buying, an unexpected Brexit vote in the UK and persistently low interest rates are behind the gains. Major gold miners were the first to benefit, with share prices soaring in step with gold prices, even as many of these companies were desperately restructuring balance sheets. Barrick, the world’s largest gold miner, has gained 164% on the Canadian TSX since the start of 2016.
Gold’s rapid increase, after many years of price decline, may have caught many investors by surprise and they may not have participated in the upside. Serious investors not yet in the market must now decide whether to buy gold or major miners on the basis that gold will continue its strong bull uptrend, or to wait for a market correction.
There are more choices however: while best-in-class major gold miners move in tandem with gold prices, mid-size or junior producers and exploration and development companies frequently see delays in their share price response to the price of gold.
Historically, major gold miners track closely with the gold price, but the cycle needs to be well developed before intermediate and small producers participate; development and exploration companies lag even more.
Using the Century Mining Database, we have completed a Median Enterprise Value (EV) analysis of about 1000 global gold companies from mid- December 2015, when the gold price was at bottom, to mid-July this year. The analysis tracks EV to ounces of gold in both reserves and resources and also categorizes companies into large capitalization producers, small capitalization producers, companies in construction and finally development/exploration companies.
For EVs of gold ounces in ‘reserves’ (reserves are known to be economically feasible for extraction) the analysis shows major producers track closely to the gold price, small capitalization and construction companies less so. Development and exploration companies with limited reserves lag and receive even less investor interest compared to gold price increases.
Assuming the gold bull market is still early stage, the smaller producers and development companies that are currently performance laggards will likely improve their performance as the bull market develops. They may eventually outperform the large companies before the cycle ends. Companies in the laggard categories may represent good buying opportunities
We also compared EV by gold ounces in ‘resources’ (resources have reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction). A gold company’s resources hold the potential of a new mine, extend a mine’s life or open the possibility of increasing production. They are one good indicator of value.
The EV/Resource analysis shows a similar response to the reserve analysis for the large gold producers. The response by smaller producers and construction and development companies is much more muted, perhaps because smaller companies have a greater volume of gold ounces in the resource category.
The EV analysis of a company’s reserves and resources can help investors narrow in on buying opportunities where value may still be available, especially in this gold bull market.
( Written by Sandy Chim, President and CEO of Century GlobalCommodities Corporation)