2016-09-26

BHP, the World Biggest Miner, on Recovery Path!

BHP,the world’s largest mining company, has a market capitalizationof US$86.6Bn and dual listings on the London and Australian stock exchanges. The company touts “petroleum, copper, iron ore and coal” asits four production pillars, whichmake up 97% of its revenue. A"fifth" pillar, potash, will meet a world awash in the fertiliser ifBHP completes its Jansen mine project in Canada. BHP operations are within the firstor second quartile of the worldwide cost curve, which ensures theymaintain positive site operating costs. After aggressive cost-cutting in the 2016 financial year (2016 FY) BHPhas positioned itself to recover from the post super-cycle crash that dented manycompany balance sheets and profits. In 2016 FY,despite revenue of US$30.9Bn and underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciationand amortization (EBITDA) of US$12.3Bn, the company generated a US$6.4Bn loss. The loss, the first in 15 years, was from one-time cuts toUS shale oil and gas assets (US$4.9 billion), the Samarco iron ore disaster inBrazil (US$2.2 billion) and money set aside fortaxationreassessments (US$570 million). Net debt at year-end, 30th June 2016, was US$26.1billion and the company expects to modestly reduce this in 2017FY. The future fortunes of BHP rest squarely on commodity prices fortheir four principal products: Copper sector - (US1¢/lb. change in price– US$34M on 2017FY EBITDA) From June 2016 copper has traded in the US$2.08 - 2.25/lb.range. In 2016 FY BHP sold 1,580 kilo-tonnes and realized US$2.14/lb. Most analysts are predicting a price improvement within twoyears but for BHP’s 2017 FY the price will likely remain flat. Coal sector - (US$1/t on metallurgical coal – US$42M on 2017FYEBITDA and US$1/t on energy coal US$18M 2017FY) In recent months, spot hard coking coal hasrocketed and reached US$206/tonne FOB Australian east coast port. Contractprices have yet to respond, but near-term contracts will likely be in theUS$120/t range. In 2016FY BHP sold 43 million tonnes and realizeda price of US$83/t for metallurgical coal. Whilenot rising at quite the dizzyingpace of coking coal, energy coal has added 37% invalue this year with the benchmark Australian export price recently approachingUS$70/t. Petroleum sector - (US$1/Barrel – US$79M on 2017FY EBITDA) Many analysts are predicting early improvement in the crudeprice. It traded at US$47.50/barrel late last week, a 22% improvement on BHP’s2016FY realized price. In 2016 FY BHP sold 240/MMboe and realized US$39/barrel. BHP’s petroleum sector includes natural gas and liquid naturalgas, the prices of which will likely track the crude oil price. Iron Ore sector - (US$1/t – $217M on 2017 EBITDA) Iron ore is trading around US$55/dry tonne for 62% Fe deliveredChina. Iron ore made up 34% of revenue and 45% of BHP’s underlyingEBITDA in 2016 FY, and is its most important commodity. In 2016FY it realized US$44/wet tonne, FOB Australian port. The outlook from many analysts is less than US$50/t CFR China incalendar 2017 related to new production entering the seaborne market. Recently, several analysts have been ratingBHP as a "Buy” – a turnaround mostly due to an upswing in commodity prices.An ongoing major concern, however, remains the Vale JV in Brazil where theSamarco dam burst occurred last year, which could lead to years of litigation. Since the start of the year, BHP’s shareprice has rallied about 22% on the Australian Exchange – and some analysts seebetter potential for BHP's coking coal and oil assets rather than iron ore and copper, in the shorter term. Chris LaFemina, MD at Jefferies, upgraded hisrecommendation on BHP to "Buy" from "Hold" last month. Hecited BHP's potential to cut costs further and its bigger exposure tocoking coal and oil.